Distal Pancreatectomy Fistula Risk Score (D-FRS): Development and International Validation.

OBJECTIVE: To develop 2 distinct preoperative and intraoperative risk scores to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after distal pancreatectomy (DP) to improve preventive and mitigation strategies, respectively. BACKGROUND: POPF remains the most common complication after DP. Despite several known risk factors, an adequate risk model has not been developed yet. METHODS: Two prediction risk scores were designed using data of patients undergoing DP in 2 Italian centers (2014-2016) utilizing multivariable logistic regression. The preoperative score (calculated before surgery) aims to facilitate preventive strategies and the intraoperative score (calculated at the end of surgery) aims to facilitate mitigation strategies. Internal validation was achieved using bootstrapping. These data were pooled with data from 5 centers from the United States and the Netherlands (2007-2016) to assess discrimination and calibration in an internal-external validation procedure. RESULTS: Overall, 1336 patients after DP were included, of whom 291 (22%) developed POPF. The preoperative distal fistula risk score (preoperative D-FRS) included 2 variables: pancreatic neck thickness [odds ratio: 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.17 per mm increase] and pancreatic duct diameter (OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.32-1.65 per mm increase). The model performed well with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.88) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.70-0.76) upon internal-external validation. Three risk groups were identified: low risk (<10%), intermediate risk (10%-25%), and high risk (>25%) for POPF with 238 (18%), 684 (51%), and 414 (31%) patients, respectively. The intraoperative risk score (intraoperative D-FRS) added body mass index, pancreatic texture, and operative time as variables with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: The preoperative and the intraoperative D-FRS are the first validated risk scores for POPF after DP and are readily available at: http://www.pancreascalculator.com. The 3 distinct risk groups allow for personalized treatment and benchmarking.

Bioethics in an oncological surgery unit during the COVID-19 pandemic: the Verona experience.

The spread of COVID-19 has overwhelmed medical facilities across the globe, with patients filling beds in both regular wards and in intensive care units. The repurposing of hospital facilities has resulted in a dramatic decrease in the capacity of hospitals-in terms of available beds, surgical facilities, and medical and nursing staff- to care for oncology patients. The Italian National Board of Bioethics provided precise and homogeneous guidelines for the allocation of the scarce resources available. In our experience, strictly following these general guidelines and not considering the clinical vocation of each single health care center did not allow us to resume usual activities but generated further confusion in resource allocation. To face the scarcity of available resources and guarantee our patients fair access to the health care system we created a surgical triage with four fundamental steps. We took into consideration " well defined and widely accepted clinical prognostic factors " as stated by the Italian Society of Anesthesia and Resuscitation. We were able to draw up a list of patients giving priority to those who theoretically should have a greater chance of overcoming their critical situation. The age criterion has also been used in the overall evaluation of different cure options in each case, but it has never been considered on its own or outside the other clinical parameters. Although not considered acceptable by many we had to forcefully adopt the criterion of comparison between patients to give priority to those most in need of immediate care.